πΊπΈ Major League Soccer
· Regular season
FT
Atlanta United FC vs Philadelphia Union - Major League Soccer
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
·
Ref: Marcos de Oliveira, USA
Atl
4
·
Phi
AI Match Analysis
Two Eastern Conference teams desperate for their first points of the season clash at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as Atlanta United hosts Philadelphia Union. Both sides currently languish near the bottom of the standings, sitting at #14 and #12 respectively, each with three losses from their opening three games. A win here would provide a much-needed confidence boost and kickstart their campaigns.
The form books paint a bleak picture for both sides. Atlanta United has lost their last two league matches, while Philadelphia Union mirrors that with three consecutive defeats. Interestingly, both teams have managed two draws recently, albeit in other competitions, suggesting a degree of resilience despite their league struggles. Atlanta's home form shows a single defeat, while Philadelphia has an identical record on the road, further highlighting the evenness between these struggling teams.
Historically, the head-to-head record slightly favors Philadelphia, with two wins to Atlanta's one in their last five encounters, alongside two draws. The peculiar win probability, heavily skewed towards Atlanta at 57.46% based on Elo ratings despite their poor form, suggests the oddsmakers are giving significant weight to home advantage. While both teams are clearly out of sorts, Atlanta might just have the edge to snatch a narrow victory, leveraging the home crowd to break their losing streak.
The form books paint a bleak picture for both sides. Atlanta United has lost their last two league matches, while Philadelphia Union mirrors that with three consecutive defeats. Interestingly, both teams have managed two draws recently, albeit in other competitions, suggesting a degree of resilience despite their league struggles. Atlanta's home form shows a single defeat, while Philadelphia has an identical record on the road, further highlighting the evenness between these struggling teams.
Historically, the head-to-head record slightly favors Philadelphia, with two wins to Atlanta's one in their last five encounters, alongside two draws. The peculiar win probability, heavily skewed towards Atlanta at 57.46% based on Elo ratings despite their poor form, suggests the oddsmakers are giving significant weight to home advantage. While both teams are clearly out of sorts, Atlanta might just have the edge to snatch a narrow victory, leveraging the home crowd to break their losing streak.
Our Predictions
1X2
1
34%
2.80
low
BTTS
BTTS Yes
44%
1.62
medium
O/U
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
medium
Match Info
Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Referee
Marcos de Oliveira, USA
Round
Regular season
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
69.97%
Win Probability
30.03%
Match Analysis
Combo Double chance : draw or Philadelphia Union and -3.5 goals
Predicted winner: Philadelphia Union — Win or draw
Atlanta United FC
10.00%
Draw
45.00%
Philadelphia Union
45.00%
Expected goals:
-1.5 - -1.5
Match Statistics
42%
Ball Possession
58%
11
Total Shots
14
4
Shots on Goal
3
5
Shots off Goal
9
4
Corner Kicks
5
14
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
337
Total passes
457
246
Passes accurate
363
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Match Events
28'
⚽
E. Latte Lath
41'
🟦
E. Baez
Yellow Card
43'
⚽
M. Iloski
(M. Iloski)
Missed Penalty
45+2'
🟦
S. Gregersen
Yellow Card
47'
⚽
T. Jacob
49'
🟦
M. Galarza
Yellow Card
57'
🔄
S. Korzeniowski
(E. Alladoh)
Substitution 1
57'
🔄
I. Vassilev
(A. Anello)
Substitution 2
57'
🔄
M. Iloski
(A. Bedoya)
Substitution 3
68'
⚽
A. Miranchuk
69'
🔄
E. Latte Lath
(F. Picault)
Substitution 1
69'
🔄
M. Galarza
(S. Alzate)
Substitution 2
77'
🔄
P. Ndinga
(J. Sery Larsen)
Substitution 4
78'
🔄
A. Miranchuk
(S. Lobjanidze)
Substitution 3
81'
🔄
D. Jean Jacques
(J. Bueno)
Substitution 5
85'
🟦
T. Jacob
Yellow Card
87'
⚽
A. Anello
88'
🔄
C. Sanchez
(M. Edwards)
Substitution 4
88'
🔄
M. Almiron
(P. Amador)
Substitution 5
Player Ratings
Atlanta United FC
Player
Rtg
G
A
SoG
Pas
Cayman Togashi
-
-
-
-
-
Philadelphia Union
Player
Rtg
G
A
SoG
Pas
Ben Bender
-
-
-
-
-
Lineups
Atlanta United FC
4-3-3
4-4-2
Philadelphia Union
Gerardo Martino
Coach
Bradley Carnell
4-3-3
59
Miranchuk
9
Lath
10
AlmirΓ³n
48
Sanchez
8
Muyumba
88
Galarza
55
Jacob
5
Gregersen
4
Mihaj
3
BΓ‘ez
1
Hoyos
4-4-2
37
Kornzenio.
9
Damiani
10
Iloski
21
Jacques
4
LukiΔ
19
Vassilev
39
Westfield
26
Harriel
29
Makhanya
20
Ndinga
18
Blake
Starting XI
1
Lucas Hoyos
G
G
Andre Blake
18
55
TomΓ‘s Jacob
D
D
Frankie Westfield
39
5
Stian Gregersen
D
D
Nathan Harriel
26
4
Enea Mihaj
D
D
Olwethu Makhanya
29
3
ElΓas BΓ‘ez
D
D
Philippe Ndinga
20
48
Cooper Sanchez
M
M
Milan Iloski
10
8
Tristan Muyumba
M
M
Danley Jean Jacques
21
88
MatΓas Galarza
M
M
Jovan LukiΔ
4
59
Aleksei Miranchuk
F
M
Indiana Vassilev
19
9
Emmanuel Latte Lath
F
F
Stas Kornzeniowski
37
10
Miguel AlmirΓ³n
F
F
Bruno Damiani
9
Substitutes
42
Jayden Hibbert
Alejandro Bedoya
11
2
Ronald HernΓ‘ndez
Agustin Anello
28
47
Matthew Edwards
Ezekiel Alladoh
23
18
Pedro Amador
Andrew Rick
76
11
Saba Lobjanidze
Geiner MartΓnez
2
7
Steven Alzate
Japhet Sery Larsen
5
19
Sergio Santos
Jesus Bueno
8
22
FafΓ Picault
Cavan Sullivan
6
30
Cayman Togashi
Ben Bender
16
Head to Head
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
0
3
0 wins
2 draws
3 wins
2025-05-17
Atlanta United FC
0 - 1
Philadelphia Union
HT: 0-0
2025-04-19
Philadelphia Union
3 - 0
Atlanta United FC
HT: 1-0
2024-09-28
Philadelphia Union
1 - 1
Atlanta United FC
HT: 0-0
2024-04-14
Atlanta United FC
2 - 2
Philadelphia Union
HT: 0-0
2023-10-04
Philadelphia Union
3 - 2
Atlanta United FC
HT: 3-0
Odds
Bet365
Home
2.80
Draw
3.40
Away
2.35
Home
3.40
Draw
2.25
Away
2.88
Home
3.00
Draw
2.50
Away
2.60
Over 1.5
1.22
Under 1.5
4.00
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.05
Over 3.5
2.75
Under 3.5
1.40
Over 0.5
1.04
Under 0.5
12.00
Over 4.5
5.50
Under 4.5
1.14
Over 7.5
51.00
Under 7.5
1.00
Over 5.5
11.00
Under 5.5
1.05
Over 6.5
23.00
Under 6.5
1.01
Over 1.5
2.62
Under 1.5
1.44
Over 2.5
6.50
Under 2.5
1.11
Over 3.5
19.00
Under 3.5
1.02
Over 0.5
1.33
Under 0.5
3.25
Over 1.5
1.91
Under 1.5
1.80
Over 2.5
4.00
Under 2.5
1.22
Over 3.5
10.00
Under 3.5
1.06
Over 0.5
1.20
Under 0.5
4.33
Over 4.5
26.00
Under 4.5
1.01
Yes
1.62
No
2.20
Yes
4.00
No
1.22
Yes
3.00
No
1.36
Home -1.25
5.50
Away -1.25
1.15
Home -1
4.80
Away -1
1.18
Home -0.75
3.45
Away -0.75
1.30
Home -0.5
2.75
Away -0.5
1.42
Home -0.25
2.42
Away -0.25
1.52
Home +0.25
1.78
Away +0.25
2.02
Home +0.5
1.60
Away +0.5
2.30
Home +0.75
1.42
Away +0.75
2.75
Home +1
1.27
Away +1
3.55
Home -1.5
5.90
Away -1.5
1.13
Home +1.25
1.23
Away +1.25
4.00
Home +1.5
1.20
Away +1.5
4.40
Home +1.75
1.13
Away +1.75
5.90
Home +0
2.02
Away +0
1.78
Home/Draw
1.57
Home/Away
1.30
Draw/Away
1.40
Home/Draw
1.40
Home/Away
1.57
Draw/Away
1.30
1:0
11.00
2:0
15.00
2:1
11.00
3:0
29.00
3:1
21.00
3:2
26.00
4:0
51.00
4:1
41.00
0:0
12.00
1:1
6.50
2:2
12.00
0:1
9.50
0:2
12.00
0:3
23.00
1:2
9.50
1:3
17.00
2:3
23.00
3:3
41.00
0:4
41.00
1:4
41.00
2:4
41.00
4:2
51.00
0:5
101.00
0:6
301.00
1:5
81.00
1:6
201.00
2:5
101.00
2:6
301.00
3:4
81.00
5:0
151.00
5:1
101.00
5:2
126.00
6:0
501.00
6:1
351.00
6:2
451.00
4:3
81.00
3:5
151.00
4:5
451.00
5:3
201.00
4:4
151.00
1:0
5.00
2:0
15.00
2:1
21.00
3:0
51.00
3:1
51.00
3:2
126.00
4:0
151.00
4:1
251.00
0:0
3.25
1:1
7.50
2:2
41.00
0:1
4.50
0:2
12.00
0:3
41.00
1:2
21.00
1:3
51.00
2:3
126.00
3:3
451.00
0:4
126.00
1:4
201.00
2:4
501.00
Home/Draw
13.00
Home/Away
23.00
Draw/Away
6.00
Draw/Draw
5.50
Home/Home
4.50
Draw/Home
7.00
Away/Home
26.00
Away/Draw
13.00
Away/Away
3.75
Home
2.10
Away
1.67
Home/Yes
5.00
Draw/Yes
4.33
Away/Yes
4.33
Home/No
5.50
Draw/No
12.00
Away/No
4.33
o/yes 2.5
2.00
o/no 2.5
10.00
u/yes 2.5
6.50
u/no 2.5
2.62
Odd
1.91
Even
1.80
0
12.00
1
5.50
2
3.75
3
4.00
4
5.50
5
9.50
6
19.00
more 7
23.00
0
4.33
1
2.88
2
3.50
3
6.00
4
15.00
more 5
26.00
Over 1.5
1.23
Under 1.5
4.00
Over 1.75
1.27
Under 1.75
3.55
Over 2.25
1.55
Under 2.25
2.38
Over 2.5
1.75
Under 2.5
2.05
Over 2.75
1.98
Under 2.75
1.82
Over 3.5
2.85
Under 3.5
1.40
Over 2
1.35
Under 2
3.10
Over 3
2.30
Under 3
1.60
Over 4
4.50
Under 4
1.19
Over 1.25
1.14
Under 1.25
5.75
Over 4.5
5.50
Under 4.5
1.15
Over 3.25
2.50
Under 3.25
1.50
Over 3.75
3.45
Under 3.75
1.30
Over 4.25
5.00
Under 4.25
1.17
Over 4.75
6.80
Under 4.75
1.10
Over 1.5
2.60
Under 1.5
1.48
Over 1.75
3.30
Under 1.75
1.32
Over 2.25
5.75
Under 2.25
1.14
Over 2.5
6.40
Under 2.5
1.12
Over 1
1.70
Under 1
2.10
Over 2
5.25
Under 2
1.16
Over 0.75
1.48
Under 0.75
2.60
Over 1.25
2.15
Under 1.25
1.68
Home -1
6.00
Away -1
1.40
Draw -1
4.75
Home -2
13.00
Draw -2
8.50
Away -2
1.11
Home +1
1.57
Draw +1
4.33
Away +1
4.50
Home +2
1.18
Draw +2
7.00
Away +2
10.00
Home +3
1.05
Draw +3
15.00
Away +3
23.00
Home +1
1.40
Draw +1
3.75
Away +1
9.00
Over 1.5
2.38
Under 1.5
1.53
Over 2.5
5.50
Under 2.5
1.14
Over 3.5
15.00
Under 3.5
1.03
Over 0.5
1.28
Under 0.5
3.50
Over 4.5
41.00
Under 4.5
1.00
0
3.50
1
2.60
2
3.75
more 3
5.50
Over 1.5
2.10
Under 1.5
1.67
Over 2.5
4.50
Under 2.5
1.18
Over 3.5
13.00
Under 3.5
1.04
Over 0.5
1.22
Under 0.5
4.00
Over 4.5
29.00
Under 4.5
1.01
0
4.00
1
2.62
2
3.50
more 3
4.50
Home
5.50
Away
4.33
Home
10.00
Away
8.00
Home
1.83
Away
1.73
Home
11.00
Away
9.00
Home
2.05
Draw
12.00
Away
1.83
Home
2.05
Draw
12.00
Away
1.83
Home
3.75
Away
3.40
Home/Over 2.5
4.33
Draw/Over 2.5
10.00
Away/Over 2.5
3.50
Home/Under 2.5
7.00
Draw/Under 2.5
4.75
Away/Under 2.5
6.00
Draw
2.50
1st Half
3.40
2nd Half
2.40
Yes
3.50
No
1.28
Yes
4.00
No
1.22
Home
8.00
Draw
1.17
Away
7.50
Draw
2.30
1st Half
3.50
2nd Half
2.50
Odd
2.00
Even
1.73
Draw/Over 1.5
7.00
Away/Over 1.5
6.50
Home/Over 1.5
8.00
Home/Under 1.5
5.00
Draw/Under 1.5
3.25
Away/Under 1.5
4.50
Major League Soccer Standings
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |
New York City FC
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:3 | +8 | 10 |
W
W
W
D
|
| 2. |
Nashville SC
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8:2 | +6 | 10 |
W
W
D
W
|
| 3. |
Inter Miami
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 7 |
D
W
W
L
|
| 4. |
New York Red Bulls
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 7 |
D
L
W
W
|
| 5. |
DC United
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 6 |
W
L
L
W
|
| 6. |
Charlotte
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4:5 | -1 | 5 |
D
W
L
D
|
| 7. |
Chicago Fire
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | +1 | 4 |
L
D
W
L
|
| 8. |
Toronto FC
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 4 |
D
W
L
L
|
| 9. |
New England Revolution
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 3 |
W
L
L
|
| 10. |
Atlanta United FC
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 3 |
W
L
L
L
|
| 11. |
FC Cincinnati
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 |
L
L
L
W
|
| 12. |
CF Montreal
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
|
| 13. |
Orlando City SC
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:12 | -7 | 3 |
W
L
L
L
|
| 14. |
Columbus Crew
|
4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 2 |
L
D
D
L
|
| 15. |
Philadelphia Union
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:7 | -5 | 0 |
L
L
L
L
|
Western Conference
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |
Vancouver Whitecaps
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:1 | +13 | 12 |
W
W
W
W
|
| 2. |
Los Angeles FC
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:0 | +8 | 12 |
W
W
W
W
|
| 3. |
San Diego
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11:3 | +8 | 10 |
D
W
W
W
|
| 4. |
San Jose Earthquakes
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:1 | +5 | 9 |
L
W
W
W
|
| 5. |
Seattle Sounders
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5:2 | +3 | 9 |
W
W
L
W
|
| 6. |
Real Salt Lake
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:5 | +2 | 9 |
W
W
W
L
|
| 7. |
Colorado Rapids
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:6 | +1 | 6 |
L
W
W
L
|
| 8. |
Houston Dynamo
|
3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:5 | 0 | 6 |
W
L
W
|
| 9. |
FC Dallas
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:6 | 0 | 5 |
D
L
D
W
|
| 10. |
Los Angeles Galaxy
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6:7 | -1 | 4 |
L
L
W
D
|
| 11. |
Austin
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 4 |
L
L
W
D
|
| 12. |
Sporting Kansas City
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 4 |
W
L
D
L
|
| 13. |
Minnesota United FC
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4:11 | -7 | 4 |
L
L
W
D
|
| 14. |
Portland Timbers
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:11 | -5 | 3 |
L
L
L
W
|
| 15. |
St. Louis City
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1:6 | -5 | 1 |
L
L
L
D
|
Promotion
Season Form
Atlanta United FC
0
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
GF: 2
GA: 7
GD: -5
Philadelphia Union
0
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
GF: 1
GA: 4
GD: -3
Last 5 Matches
Atlanta United FC
08 Mar
H
Real Salt Lake
2-3
L
01 Mar
A
San Jose Earthquakes
0-2
L
Philadelphia Union
08 Mar
H
San Jose Earthquakes
0-1
L
01 Mar
H
New York City FC
1-2
L