🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Premier League · Championship Group - 28 FT

Caernarfon Town

D D L L W

2 - 4

HT: 1-2

GAP Connah S Quay FC

D D D L L

The Oval · Ref: M. Petch

Cae 3 · GAP 3

Match Preview

A crucial Championship Group clash sees fourth-placed Caernarfon Town host GAP Connah's Quay, who currently sit second in the Welsh Premier League table. With Connah's Quay looking to close the gap on The New Saints at the top, and Caernarfon aiming to consolidate their position in the top four, this match at The Oval carries significant weight for both sides.

Caernarfon's recent form is exceptional, boasting four consecutive wins leading up to their recent draw against Rhyl. However, their home record is more modest, with just four wins in eleven matches. GAP Connah's Quay, while also drawing their last match against The New Saints, possess a formidable away record, winning seven of their eleven games on the road and losing only once. The contrast in home and away form could prove a key factor in determining the outcome of this encounter.

The head-to-head record suggests a closely contested affair, with one win apiece and three draws in the last five meetings. Despite the lack of concrete injury information, the provided Elo-based win probability heavily favors a home victory for Caernarfon Town. Given Caernarfon's recent winning streak and the statistical likelihood, the home side may just have the edge, despite the Nomads' strong away form.

Our Predictions

1X2 1 43% 2.60 medium

BTTS BTTS Yes 65% 1.55 high

CS 2-1 8% 13.50 low

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HT/FT 1/1 16% 6.75 medium

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O/U Over 2.5 59% 1.70 high

Match Info

Stadium

The Oval

Referee

M. Petch

Round

Championship Group - 28

Caernarfon Town GAP Connah S Quay FC

58.45% Win Probability 41.55%

Match Analysis

Double chance : Caernarfon Town or draw

Predicted winner: Caernarfon Town — Win or draw

Caernarfon Town 45.00%

Draw 45.00%

GAP Connah S Quay FC 10.00%

Expected goals: -2.5 - -2.5

Match Events

1' ⚽

H. Franklin

13' ⚽

P. Mooney

36' ⚽

R. Hughes Penalty

37' 🟦

C. Bratley Yellow Card

41' 🟦

I. Lewis Yellow Card

45' 🟦

D. Gosset Yellow Card

62' 🟦

J. Jones Yellow Card

67' ⚽

N. Edwards

68' 🔄

B. Young (A. Davies) Substitution 1

68' 🔄

D. Gosset (R. Owen) Substitution 2

70' ⚽

H. Franklin

74' 🟦

A. Sharif Yellow Card

79' 🔄

R. Hughes (M. Woodcock) Substitution 1

85' 🟦

R. Owen Yellow Card

87' 🔄

S. Bradley (D. Thomas) Substitution 3

89' 🔄

C. West (D. Roberts) Substitution 2

90+4' ⚽

R. Owen

90+5' 🔄

H. Franklin (F. Redshaw) Substitution 3

Head to Head

Caernarfon Town

GAP Connah S Quay FC

2 wins 3 draws 0 wins

2026-02-06

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 - 1 Caernarfon Town

HT: 1-0

2026-01-13

Caernarfon Town 2 - 2 GAP Connah S Quay FC

HT: 1-1

2025-09-23

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 - 2 Caernarfon Town

HT: 0-1

2024-12-03

GAP Connah S Quay FC 1 - 1 Caernarfon Town

HT: 1-0

2024-09-28

Caernarfon Town 3 - 1 GAP Connah S Quay FC

HT: 2-0

Odds

10Bet

Home

2.60

Draw

3.50

Away

2.35

Home

3.00

Draw

2.25

Away

2.90

Home

2.90

Draw

2.55

Away

2.62

Over 1.5

1.22

Under 1.5

4.00

Over 2.5

1.70

Under 2.5

2.05

Over 3.5

2.75

Under 3.5

1.40

Over 1.5

2.38

Under 1.5

1.50

Over 0.5

1.28

Under 0.5

3.20

Over 1.5

1.93

Under 1.5

1.77

Yes

1.55

2.20

Yes

3.55

1.22

Yes

2.85

1.36

Home +0

1.95

Away +0

1.77

Home/Draw

1.45

Home/Away

1.22

Draw/Away

1.45

1:0

9.00

2:0

12.00

2:1

8.00

3:0

23.00

3:1

15.00

3:2

21.00

4:0

56.00

4:1

41.00

0:0

11.00

1:1

6.00

2:2

10.00

0:1

8.50

0:2

11.00

0:3

21.00

1:2

7.50

1:3

13.00

2:3

19.00

3:3

34.00

0:4

46.00

1:4

34.00

2:4

46.00

4:2

46.00

0:5

101.00

1:5

81.00

2:5

101.00

3:4

71.00

5:0

126.00

5:1

91.00

5:2

126.00

4:3

76.00

1:0

4.75

2:0

11.00

2:1

15.00

3:0

46.00

3:1

56.00

3:2

81.00

0:0

3.20

1:1

6.25

2:2

41.00

0:1

4.50

0:2

10.00

0:3

41.00

1:2

13.00

1:3

56.00

2:3

81.00

0:4

91.00

1:0

4.50

2:0

10.00

2:1

11.00

3:0

31.00

3:1

34.00

3:2

61.00

4:0

91.00

4:1

101.00

0:0

3.65

1:1

5.00

2:2

23.00

0:1

4.20

0:2

9.00

0:3

26.00

1:2

11.00

1:3

31.00

2:3

61.00

0:4

76.00

1:4

91.00

Home/Draw

13.00

Home/Away

23.00

Draw/Away

6.00

Draw/Draw

5.75

Home/Home

4.00

Draw/Home

6.50

Away/Home

26.00

Away/Draw

13.00

Away/Away

3.80

Home

1.95

Away

1.77

Home/Yes

4.50

Draw/Yes

4.33

Away/Yes

4.20

Home/No

5.00

Draw/No

11.00

Away/No

4.50

Odd

1.85

Even

1.85

Odd

2.00

Even

1.73

Odd

1.93

Even

1.77

Home -1

5.00

Away -1

1.45

Draw -1

4.33

Over 1.5

2.15

Under 1.5

1.57

Over 0.5

1.22

Under 0.5

3.45

2.60

more 2

2.15

Over 1.5

2.05

Under 1.5

1.65

Over 0.5

1.20

Under 0.5

3.70

2.65

more 2

2.05

Home

9.00

Away

7.50

Home

2.00

Draw

11.00

Away

1.93

Home

2.00

Draw

11.00

Away

1.93

Premier League Standings

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1.	The New Saints	22	17	2	3	59:19	+40	53	W W W W W
2.	GAP Connah S Quay FC	22	14	5	3	48:25	+23	47	L L D D D
3.	Penybont	22	11	5	6	36:31	+5	38	L L D L D
4.	Caernarfon Town	22	9	7	6	44:32	+12	34	W L L D D
5.	Barry Town	22	7	9	6	33:25	+8	30	W W W L L
6.	Colwyn Bay	22	8	6	8	29:25	+4	30	L W L W D
7.	Cardiff MET	22	6	10	6	33:36	-3	28	D D D L D
8.	Briton Ferry	22	6	7	9	32:40	-8	25	W D L W W
9.	Haverfordwest County AFC	22	6	6	10	30:39	-9	24	L W W W W
10.	Bala Town	22	6	5	11	19:30	-11	23	D L L D L
11.	Flint Town United	22	5	6	11	34:48	-14	21	W D D W W
12.	llanelli AFC	22	2	2	18	12:59	-47	8	D L D L L