🏴 Premier League
· Championship Group - 28
FT
Penybont vs The New Saints - Premier League
Bryntirion Park
·
Ref: A. Jones
Pen
1
·
The
3
AI Match Analysis
The Welsh Premier League Championship Group continues with a crucial match as third-placed Penybont hosts league leaders The New Saints in round 28. Penybont, currently sitting on 38 points, will be aiming to close the gap on the top two, while The New Saints, with a commanding 53 points, will be looking to further solidify their title aspirations. A win for the visitors would put them in an almost unassailable position.
Penybont's home form has been decent but not spectacular, with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. The New Saints, on the other hand, boast an impressive away record, having won 8, drawn 2, and lost only 1 of their away fixtures. Both teams enter this fixture on the back of draws, looking to rediscover their winning touch. However, The New Saints' superior away form suggests they'll be confident of securing a positive result.
Historically, The New Saints have dominated this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters, with Penybont managing only a single victory. While we lack specific injury news, this historical dominance, coupled with The New Saints' outstanding away record, suggests they have a slight edge. The Elo-based win probability gives Penybont a surprising 56% chance of winning, but given the form and head-to-head record, expect a tightly contested match with The New Saints perhaps edging it.
Penybont's home form has been decent but not spectacular, with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. The New Saints, on the other hand, boast an impressive away record, having won 8, drawn 2, and lost only 1 of their away fixtures. Both teams enter this fixture on the back of draws, looking to rediscover their winning touch. However, The New Saints' superior away form suggests they'll be confident of securing a positive result.
Historically, The New Saints have dominated this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters, with Penybont managing only a single victory. While we lack specific injury news, this historical dominance, coupled with The New Saints' outstanding away record, suggests they have a slight edge. The Elo-based win probability gives Penybont a surprising 56% chance of winning, but given the form and head-to-head record, expect a tightly contested match with The New Saints perhaps edging it.
Our Predictions
1X2
2
58%
1.48
medium
BTTS
BTTS Yes
40%
1.83
low
O/U
Over 2.5
51%
1.70
medium
Match Info
Stadium
Bryntirion Park
Referee
A. Jones
Round
Championship Group - 28
Penybont
The New Saints
50.16%
Win Probability
49.84%
Match Analysis
Double chance : draw or The New Saints
Predicted winner: The New Saints — Win or draw
Penybont
0.00%
Draw
50.00%
The New Saints
50.00%
Expected goals:
-1.5 - -2.5
Match Events
20'
⚽
C. Venables
23'
🟦
D. Redmond
Yellow Card
30'
⚽
R. Brobbel
44'
🟦
N. Daley
Yellow Card
56'
🟦
H. McGahey
Yellow Card
66'
🔄
D. Barton
(J. Marshall)
Substitution 1
80'
🔄
D. Redmond
(B. Wilson)
Substitution 2
86'
🟦
Yellow Card
88'
🔄
N. Daley
(I. Phillips)
Substitution 1
90+1'
🔄
N. Wood
(O. Warlow)
Substitution 2
90+1'
🔄
K. Owen
(J. Jones)
Substitution 3
90+2'
⚽
J. Williams
90+4'
🔄
A. Cvetkovic
(P. Coe)
Substitution 4
90+4'
🔄
C. Green
(J. Villacorta)
Substitution 5
Head to Head
Penybont
The New Saints
1
4
1 wins
0 draws
4 wins
2026-02-07
The New Saints
6 - 0
Penybont
HT: 2-0
2025-10-11
The New Saints
6 - 2
Penybont
HT: 3-0
2025-08-16
Penybont
0 - 2
The New Saints
HT: 0-1
2025-03-29
Penybont
1 - 0
The New Saints
HT: 0-0
2025-02-08
The New Saints
4 - 0
Penybont
HT: 1-0
Odds
Bet365
Home
5.50
Draw
4.00
Away
1.48
Over 2.5
1.70
Under 2.5
2.10
Yes
1.83
No
1.83
1:0
17.00
2:0
34.00
2:1
19.00
3:0
67.00
3:1
41.00
3:2
41.00
4:0
151.00
4:1
101.00
0:0
13.00
1:1
8.50
2:2
17.00
0:1
7.50
0:2
7.50
0:3
11.00
1:2
8.50
1:3
12.00
2:3
26.00
3:3
51.00
0:4
19.00
1:4
21.00
2:4
41.00
4:2
101.00
0:5
34.00
0:6
67.00
1:5
41.00
1:6
67.00
2:5
67.00
2:6
151.00
3:4
81.00
4:3
151.00
3:5
151.00
0:7
151.00
1:7
151.00
1:0
7.50
2:0
29.00
2:1
34.00
3:0
101.00
3:1
126.00
0:0
3.25
1:1
8.50
2:2
51.00
0:1
3.60
0:2
7.00
0:3
21.00
1:2
17.00
1:3
41.00
2:3
126.00
0:4
51.00
1:4
101.00
0:5
151.00
Home
4.33
Away
1.20
Home/Yes
10.00
Draw/Yes
5.50
Away/Yes
3.25
Home/No
11.00
Draw/No
13.00
Away/No
2.50
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |
The New Saints
|
22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 59:19 | +40 | 53 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 2. |
GAP Connah S Quay FC
|
22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 48:25 | +23 | 47 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
| 3. |
Penybont
|
22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 36:31 | +5 | 38 |
L
L
L
D
L
|
| 4. |
Caernarfon Town
|
22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 44:32 | +12 | 34 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
| 5. |
Barry Town
|
22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 33:25 | +8 | 30 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
| 6. |
Colwyn Bay
|
22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29:25 | +4 | 30 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
| 7. |
Cardiff MET
|
22 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 33:36 | -3 | 28 |
L
D
D
D
L
|
| 8. |
Briton Ferry
|
22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32:40 | -8 | 25 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
| 9. |
Haverfordwest County AFC
|
22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 30:39 | -9 | 24 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 10. |
Bala Town
|
22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 19:30 | -11 | 23 |
D
D
L
L
D
|
| 11. |
Flint Town United
|
22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 34:48 | -14 | 21 |
D
W
D
D
W
|
| 12. |
llanelli AFC
|
22 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 12:59 | -47 | 8 |
L
D
L
D
L
|
Relegation
Season Form
Penybont
0
Wins
2
Draws
3
Losses
GF: 37
GA: 41
GD: -4
The New Saints
5
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
GF: 72
GA: 21
GD: +51
Last 5 Matches
Penybont
03 Mar
A
Barry Town
0-1
L
The New Saints
03 Mar
A
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2-1
W