🇯🇵 J1 League
· Regular Season - 6
FT
Shimizu S-pulse vs Fagiano Okayama - J1 League
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
·
Ref: Akihiko Ikeuchi, Japan
Shi
·
Fag
1
AI Match Analysis
A mid-table clash unfolds in the J1 League as ninth-placed Shimizu S-pulse hosts sixth-placed Fagiano Okayama. Both sides are looking to stabilize their campaigns after inconsistent starts, with Okayama holding a slender one-point advantage. A victory for Shimizu would leapfrog them over their opponents, while Okayama aims to secure their first away points of the season.
Shimizu's form is concerning, having lost four of their opening five games, although their home record offers a glimmer of hope with one win from two matches. Fagiano Okayama's form mirrors Shimizu's, with three losses in their last five. Significantly, both teams enter this fixture on the back of consecutive draws, suggesting a potential shift towards defensive solidity. Okayama's away form is particularly poor, losing both of their away games thus far.
Head-to-head records reveal a balanced history, with each team securing two wins and one draw in their last five encounters. While no injury information is provided, it's crucial to monitor team news closer to kickoff. The Elo model gives Shimizu a significant edge with a 59.71% win probability, likely influenced by their home advantage. Despite their poor form, Shimizu's historical edge and the advantage of playing at IAI Stadium Nihondaira suggest they might just edge this closely contested affair.
Shimizu's form is concerning, having lost four of their opening five games, although their home record offers a glimmer of hope with one win from two matches. Fagiano Okayama's form mirrors Shimizu's, with three losses in their last five. Significantly, both teams enter this fixture on the back of consecutive draws, suggesting a potential shift towards defensive solidity. Okayama's away form is particularly poor, losing both of their away games thus far.
Head-to-head records reveal a balanced history, with each team securing two wins and one draw in their last five encounters. While no injury information is provided, it's crucial to monitor team news closer to kickoff. The Elo model gives Shimizu a significant edge with a 59.71% win probability, likely influenced by their home advantage. Despite their poor form, Shimizu's historical edge and the advantage of playing at IAI Stadium Nihondaira suggest they might just edge this closely contested affair.
Our Predictions
1X2
1
49%
2.30
medium
BTTS
BTTS Yes
36%
1.91
low
O/U
Over 2.5
44%
2.15
medium
Match Info
Stadium
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Referee
Akihiko Ikeuchi, Japan
Round
Regular Season - 6
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
58.33%
Win Probability
41.67%
Match Analysis
Double chance : Shimizu S-pulse or draw
Predicted winner: Shimizu S-pulse — Win or draw
Shimizu S-pulse
45.00%
Draw
45.00%
Fagiano Okayama
10.00%
Expected goals:
-2.5 - -1.5
Match Statistics
63%
Ball Possession
37%
19
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
5
9
Shots off Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
7
7
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
3
468
Total passes
280
351
Passes accurate
188
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Match Events
38'
🔄
Seung-wook Park
(Kengo Kitazume)
Substitution 1
46'
🔄
Yuta Kamiya
(Kosei Ogura)
Substitution 1
51'
🟦
Kosei Ogura
Yellow Card
58'
⚽
Se-hun Oh
(Zento Uno)
61'
🔄
Kota Kawano
(Kazunari Ichimi)
Substitution 2
64'
🔄
Kazuki Kozuka
(Kanta Chiba)
Substitution 2
64'
🔄
Yuki Honda
(Sen Takagi)
Substitution 3
69'
🔄
Towa Yamane
(Takaya Kimura)
Substitution 3
69'
🔄
Ataru Esaka
(Masaya Matsumoto)
Substitution 4
74'
🔄
Capixaba
(Kai Matsuzaki)
Substitution 4
75'
🔄
Zento Uno
(Masaki Yumiba)
Substitution 5
75'
🔄
Lucão
(Werik Popó)
Substitution 5
80'
⚽
Werik Popó
(Kazunari Ichimi)
Player Ratings
Shimizu S-pulse
Player
Rtg
G
A
SoG
Pas
Toshiki Takahashi
-
-
-
-
-
Fagiano Okayama
Player
Rtg
G
A
SoG
Pas
Aura Takahashi
-
-
-
-
-
Lineups
Shimizu S-pulse
4-3-3
3-4-2-1
Fagiano Okayama
Takayuki Yoshida
Coach
Takashi Kiyama
4-3-3
49
Kitagawa
9
Oh
7
Capixaba
6
Uno
10
Bueno
81
Kozuka
14
Park
51
Sumiyoshi
15
Honda
28
Yoshida
16
Umeda
3-4-2-1
99
Lucão
40
Kawano
8
Esaka
51
Shirai
41
Miyamoto
33
Kamiya
88
Yamane
48
Tatsuta
18
Tagami
2
Kudo
1
Moser
Starting XI
16
Togo Umeda
G
G
Lennart Moser
1
14
Seung-wook Park
D
D
Yugo Tatsuta
48
51
Jelani Reshaun Sumiyoshi
D
D
Daichi Tagami
18
15
Yuki Honda
D
D
Kota Kudo
2
28
Yutaka Yoshida
D
M
Kosuke Shirai
51
6
Zento Uno
M
M
Eiji Miyamoto
41
10
Matheus Bueno
M
M
Yuta Kamiya
33
81
Kazuki Kozuka
M
M
Towa Yamane
88
49
Koya Kitagawa
F
F
Kota Kawano
40
9
Se-hun Oh
F
F
Ataru Esaka
8
7
Capixaba
F
F
Lucão
99
Substitutes
5
Kengo Kitazume
Kosei Ogura
5
70
Sen Takagi
Kazunari Ichimi
22
23
Kanta Chiba
Masaya Matsumoto
28
21
Kai Matsuzaki
Takaya Kimura
27
17
Masaki Yumiba
Werik Popó
98
1
Yuya Oki
Taro Hamada
52
97
Rinsei Ohata
Hiroshi Omori
6
50
Alfredo Stephens
Kaito Fujii
3
38
Toshiki Takahashi
Aura Takahashi
35
Head to Head
Shimizu S-pulse
Fagiano Okayama
3
1
3 wins
1 draws
1 wins
2025-12-06
Shimizu S-pulse
1 - 2
Fagiano Okayama
HT: 0-0
2025-03-02
Fagiano Okayama
1 - 1
Shimizu S-pulse
HT: 0-0
2024-06-30
Shimizu S-pulse
3 - 1
Fagiano Okayama
HT: 1-1
2024-04-28
Fagiano Okayama
0 - 1
Shimizu S-pulse
HT: 0-1
2023-07-29
Shimizu S-pulse
1 - 0
Fagiano Okayama
HT: 0-0
Odds
Bet365
Home
2.30
Draw
3.30
Away
3.00
Home
3.00
Draw
2.10
Away
3.75
Home
2.62
Draw
2.30
Away
3.20
Over 1.5
1.36
Under 1.5
3.00
Over 2.5
2.15
Under 2.5
1.67
Over 3.5
3.75
Under 3.5
1.25
Over 0.5
1.07
Under 0.5
9.00
Over 4.5
9.00
Under 4.5
1.07
Over 5.5
19.00
Under 5.5
1.02
Over 6.5
41.00
Under 6.5
1.00
Over 1.5
3.25
Under 1.5
1.33
Over 2.5
9.00
Under 2.5
1.07
Over 3.5
26.00
Under 3.5
1.01
Over 0.5
1.44
Under 0.5
2.62
Over 1.5
2.25
Under 1.5
1.57
Over 2.5
5.50
Under 2.5
1.14
Over 3.5
15.00
Under 3.5
1.03
Over 0.5
1.28
Under 0.5
3.50
Yes
1.91
No
1.91
Yes
5.00
No
1.17
Yes
3.75
No
1.25
Home -1.25
4.15
Away -1.25
1.22
Home -1
3.55
Away -1
1.27
Home -0.75
2.68
Away -0.75
1.45
Home -0.5
2.25
Away -0.5
1.62
Home -0.25
1.98
Away -0.25
1.82
Home +0
1.62
Away +0
2.25
Home +0.25
1.48
Away +0.25
2.60
Home +0.5
1.38
Away +0.5
3.00
Home +0.75
1.25
Away +0.75
3.80
Home +1
1.13
Away +1
5.90
Home -1.75
6.25
Away -1.75
1.12
Home -1.5
4.50
Away -1.5
1.19
Home +1.25
1.12
Away +1.25
6.40
Home +1.5
1.10
Away +1.5
7.00
Home -0.75
4.00
Away -0.75
1.23
Home -0.5
3.00
Away -0.5
1.38
Home -0.25
2.35
Away -0.25
1.58
Home +0
1.70
Away +0
2.10
Home +0.25
1.40
Away +0.25
2.85
Home +0.5
1.26
Away +0.5
3.70
Home +0.75
1.15
Away +0.75
5.50
Home/Draw
1.36
Home/Away
1.33
Draw/Away
1.57
Home/Draw
1.25
Home/Away
1.67
Draw/Away
1.36
1:0
7.00
2:0
11.00
2:1
9.50
3:0
21.00
3:1
21.00
3:2
34.00
4:0
41.00
4:1
41.00
0:0
8.50
1:1
6.00
2:2
15.00
0:1
9.00
0:2
15.00
0:3
34.00
1:2
12.00
1:3
26.00
2:3
41.00
3:3
51.00
0:4
67.00
1:4
51.00
2:4
81.00
4:2
51.00
0:5
201.00
1:5
151.00
1:6
501.00
2:5
251.00
3:4
151.00
5:0
101.00
5:1
101.00
5:2
151.00
6:0
351.00
6:1
351.00
6:2
501.00
4:3
126.00
3:5
501.00
5:3
351.00
4:4
301.00
1:0
4.33
2:0
13.00
2:1
23.00
3:0
41.00
3:1
67.00
3:2
151.00
4:0
151.00
4:1
251.00
0:0
2.62
1:1
8.00
2:2
51.00
0:1
5.00
0:2
19.00
0:3
51.00
1:2
29.00
1:3
81.00
2:3
201.00
0:4
251.00
1:4
451.00
Home/Draw
15.00
Home/Away
29.00
Draw/Away
6.50
Draw/Draw
4.75
Home/Home
3.75
Draw/Home
5.50
Away/Home
29.00
Away/Draw
15.00
Away/Away
5.00
Home
1.62
Away
2.20
Home/Yes
5.00
Draw/Yes
4.50
Away/Yes
6.50
Home/No
3.75
Draw/No
8.50
Away/No
5.00
o/yes 2.5
2.50
o/no 2.5
11.00
u/yes 2.5
6.00
u/no 2.5
2.10
Odd
2.00
Even
1.85
Odd
2.10
Even
1.73
Odd
2.00
Even
1.73
0
8.50
1
4.33
2
3.40
3
4.33
4
6.50
5
13.00
6
29.00
more 7
41.00
0
2.62
1
2.50
2
4.33
3
11.00
4
34.00
more 5
67.00
0
3.50
1
2.62
2
3.75
3
7.50
4
21.00
more 5
41.00
Over 1.5
1.38
Under 1.5
3.00
Over 1.75
1.45
Under 1.75
2.68
Over 2.25
1.90
Under 2.25
1.90
Over 2.5
1.80
Under 2.5
2.00
Over 2.75
2.50
Under 2.75
1.50
Over 3.5
3.90
Under 3.5
1.24
Over 1
1.10
Under 1
7.00
Over 2
1.60
Under 2
2.30
Over 3
3.10
Under 3
1.35
Over 4
6.60
Under 4
1.11
Over 1.25
1.23
Under 1.25
4.00
Over 4.5
7.00
Under 4.5
1.10
Over 3.25
3.55
Under 3.25
1.27
Over 3.75
5.00
Under 3.75
1.17
Over 4.25
7.00
Under 4.25
1.10
Over 1.5
3.10
Under 1.5
1.35
Over 1.75
4.15
Under 1.75
1.22
Over 2.25
7.00
Under 2.25
1.10
Over 1
2.08
Under 1
1.72
Over 2
6.60
Under 2
1.11
Over 0.5
1.45
Under 0.5
2.68
Over 0.75
1.65
Under 0.75
2.20
Over 1.25
2.60
Under 1.25
1.48
Home -1
4.75
Away -1
1.57
Draw -1
4.00
Home -3
29.00
Draw -3
15.00
Away -3
1.04
Home -2
11.00
Draw -2
7.00
Away -2
1.17
Home +1
1.36
Draw +1
4.75
Away +1
7.00
Home +2
1.09
Draw +2
9.50
Away +2
17.00
Home -1
10.00
Away -1
1.36
Draw -1
3.60
Home -3
151.00
Draw -3
41.00
Away -3
1.01
Home -2
34.00
Draw -2
12.00
Away -2
1.05
Home +1
1.25
Draw +1
4.33
Away +1
13.00
Over 9.5
1.90
Under 9.5
1.90
Over 10
1.92
Under 10
1.88
Exactly 5
5.50
Over 5
2.75
Under 5
1.91
Over 4.5
2.02
Under 4.5
1.78
Home -0.5
1.98
Away -0.5
1.82
Home -1
2.25
Away -1
1.83
Draw -1
8.00
Over 1.5
2.38
Under 1.5
1.53
Over 2.5
6.00
Under 2.5
1.12
Over 3.5
17.00
Under 3.5
1.02
Over 0.5
1.28
Under 0.5
3.50
Over 4.5
41.00
Under 4.5
1.00
0
3.40
1
2.60
2
3.75
more 3
6.00
Over 4.5
1.73
Under 4.5
2.00
Over 5.5
2.10
Under 5.5
1.67
Over 1.5
3.00
Under 1.5
1.36
Over 2.5
9.00
Under 2.5
1.07
Over 3.5
23.00
Under 3.5
1.01
Over 0.5
1.40
Under 0.5
2.75
Over 4.5
51.00
Under 4.5
1.00
0
2.75
1
2.50
2
4.33
more 3
8.00
Over 4.5
2.00
Under 4.5
1.73
Home
3.75
Away
5.00
Home
8.00
Away
13.00
Home
1.73
Away
2.10
Home
11.00
Away
13.00
Home
1.83
Draw
8.50
Away
2.20
Home
1.83
Draw
8.50
Away
2.20
Draw
3.40
1st Half
3.10
2nd Half
2.10
Home
3.75
Away
5.00
Home/Over 2.5
4.00
Draw/Over 2.5
13.00
Away/Over 2.5
5.50
Home/Under 2.5
4.75
Draw/Under 2.5
4.00
Away/Under 2.5
6.00
1 by 1
4.00
2 by 1
4.75
1 by 4+
29.00
1 by 2
7.00
2 by 2
9.50
1 by 3
15.00
2 by 3
21.00
2 by 4+
41.00
Score Draw
4.50
Draw
8.50
Draw
2.10
1st Half
3.75
2nd Half
2.75
Odd
2.10
Even
1.67
Yes
3.40
No
1.30
Yes
2.75
No
1.40
Home
3.40
Away
4.50
Draw
1.67
Under 6
10.00
6 - 8
3.10
9 - 11
2.60
12 - 14
4.33
Over 14
10.00
Over
1.57
Under
2.25
Home
8.00
Draw
1.14
Away
9.00
Shot
1.50
Header
6.50
Penalty
7.50
FreeKick
23.00
OwnGoal
29.00
Draw
8.50
Draw
2.30
1st Half
3.50
2nd Half
2.60
Odd
2.00
Even
1.73
Over 21.5
1.83
Under 21.5
1.83
Draw/Over 1.5
8.00
Away/Over 1.5
10.00
Home/Over 1.5
8.00
Home/Under 1.5
4.33
Draw/Under 1.5
2.62
Away/Under 1.5
5.00
Home
21.00
Away
21.00
Home
7.00
Away
8.00
Exactly 4
21.00
Over 4
1.02
Under 4
26.00
Exactly 5
15.00
Over 5
1.06
Under 5
17.00
Exactly 8
8.00
Over 8
1.50
Under 8
3.50
Exactly 9
8.00
Over 9
1.83
Under 9
2.50
Exactly 10
8.00
Over 10
2.38
Under 10
1.83
Exactly 11
9.00
Over 11
2.75
Under 11
1.67
Exactly 7
9.00
Over 7
1.28
Under 7
5.50
Exactly 12
10.00
Over 12
3.75
Under 12
1.40
Exactly 6
11.00
Over 6
1.14
Under 6
10.00
Exactly 13
12.00
Over 13
5.50
Under 13
1.25
Exactly 14
15.00
Over 14
8.00
Under 14
1.14
Exactly 17
29.00
Over 17
21.00
Under 17
1.02
Exactly 16
21.00
Over 16
15.00
Under 16
1.04
Exactly 15
19.00
Over 15
12.00
Under 15
1.08
J1 League Standings
East
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |
Kashima
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10:4 | +6 | 16 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 2. |
FC Tokyo
|
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 12 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
| 3. |
Machida Zelvia
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:8 | +3 | 12 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
| 4. |
Tokyo Verdy
|
6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11:9 | +2 | 11 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
| 5. |
Urawa
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9:6 | +3 | 10 |
L
W
L
W
L
|
| 6. |
Kawasaki Frontale
|
5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:8 | +2 | 7 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
| 7. |
Yokohama F. Marinos
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 6 |
W
L
W
L
L
|
| 8. |
Mito Hollyhock
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8:14 | -6 | 5 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
| 9. |
JEF United Chiba
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:10 | -6 | 5 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
| 10. |
Kashiwa Reysol
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7:12 | -5 | 3 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
West
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |
Vissel Kobe
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9:3 | +6 | 11 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
| 2. |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 11 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
| 3. |
Gamba Osaka
|
6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9:8 | +1 | 11 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
| 4. |
Kyoto Sanga
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:7 | +1 | 9 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
| 5. |
Cerezo Osaka
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6:5 | +1 | 9 |
W
W
L
L
W
|
| 6. |
Nagoya Grampus
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9:9 | 0 | 9 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
| 7. |
V-varen Nagasaki
|
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:9 | -1 | 9 |
W
L
W
W
L
|
| 8. |
Fagiano Okayama
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7:9 | -2 | 8 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
| 9. |
Shimizu S-pulse
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6:8 | -2 | 8 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
| 10. |
Avispa Fukuoka
|
6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4:13 | -9 | 2 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
Promotion
Season Form
Shimizu S-pulse
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
GF: 4
GA: 7
GD: -3
Fagiano Okayama
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
GF: 6
GA: 7
GD: -1
Last 5 Matches
Shimizu S-pulse
07 Mar
A
Cerezo Osaka
0-0
D
Fagiano Okayama
08 Mar
H
Kyoto Sanga
1-0
W
01 Mar
H
Nagoya Grampus
1-1
D