Full Analysis

We're backing a Home Win at odds of 1.28. Liverpool are in formidable form, with four wins in their last five games, scoring an impressive 20 goals in that stretch. Their home record at Anfield is typically very strong, and they'll be looking to capitalize on that here. Tottenham, on the other hand, have been struggling significantly, losing four of their last five matches. Their goal difference also suggests they've been conceding a lot lately. While the odds are short, our model's 70% probability against bookmaker odds implying around 62.5% (1/1.28) gives us a 7.5% edge, reinforcing the high confidence in a Liverpool victory. Interestingly, our model also flags BTTS Yes as a value bet at odds of 1.80. Although Liverpool have been scoring freely, Tottenham's overall season goal tally (38 goals scored) indicates they do have attacking capability, even if their recent form is poor. The odds for BTTS Yes (1.80) imply a probability of 55.6%, but our model calculates it at 44%. This is a bit counter-intuitive given Tottenham's recent struggles, but it suggests there's a potential discrepancy in the market. It's a medium confidence pick, so consider it with that in mind. For those looking for more advanced picks, the **Correct Score of 2-1 ** for Liverpool is available for 1 credit on the match page (/match/liverpool-vs-tottenham-2026-03-15). Our model gives this a 9% probability, which is quite decent for odds of 12.00 (implying 8.3%). Also, the **HT/FT pick of 1/1** (Liverpool to be winning at half-time and full-time) is a medium confidence selection at 2.51 odds, with a model probability of 43% versus bookmaker odds of 39.8%. Remember to only bet what you can afford to lose. No bet is ever guaranteed.